Hey everyone, you may know me as u/HAMSTERSRULE111 and its been along time since I have posted back at GenZedong and first time posting here, and during my absence I have become more anxious over my attempts to verify MSM claims about China, worried that my findings might not be credible, contain logical fallacies, or might be to inconclusive. I’m no expert in investigation, just someone who wants to find the truth. This greatly discouraged me from researching MSM claims about China… Until now. Please read my findings below and my concerns, and please comment any issue with them. Thank you.
Aside from a handful of testifiers, there as been a strange lack of a mass refugee crisis coming from Xinjiang. What I define by “mass refugee crisis” is that during a genocide, the persecuted tend to leave in a mass exodus. For example, 780,000 ethnic Rohingya fled to Bangladesh to escape persecution in Myanmar. However, there have only been a miniscule amount of asylum seekers from China in the countries that border Xinjiang. 
Country - Amount of asylum applicants from China from 2017 to 2021 according to The UN Refugee Agency
Kazakhstan  - 23
Kyrgyzstan - 5
Pakistan  - 18
Tajikistan - N/A
An explanation given is that the Chinese Government had made it difficult for ethnic minorities to leave China in 2016 - 2017.
However, sources I have found from the Kazakhstani Government do not seem to support this allegation. They seem to indicate that thousands of ethnic minorities most potentially being ethnic Kazakhs migrating into Kazakhstan from China from the years of 2017 to 2021 supposedly when the Xinjiang Crackdown is in effect
First source is “External migration by country” from Stat.gov.kz. Specifically " Number of arrivals to the Republic of Kazakhstan by country of arrival".
Using the data of this table, we can make a line graph of migrants entering Kazakhstan from other countries.
Legend: Blue - China, Orange - Mongolia, Yellow - Turkmenistan, Green - Uzbekistan, Violet - Russia
Without Russia and Uzbekistan
(Do note the years of 2016 - 2021 saw a lower amount of migrants relative to the years prior, and some unexpected increases can happen ex: Mongolia from 3,706 to 7,438 and finally 3,502 people in just three years respectively)
Although, this graph is not incredibly useful on it’s own since it does not show the ethnic composition of the migrants. Which is where the second source comes in.
It is connected to the first source except it allows us to view the ethnicity of migrants entering Kazakhstan.
The table reveals that only a small mount of ethnic Chinese had migrated to Kazakhstan compared to the amount of arrivals from China.
Charts below assume that all the Ethnic Chinese had migrated from China
In 2017 - 2021 alone, only 59 ethnic Chinese had migrated to Kazakhstan, while 7,673 people had arrived from China. Which could mean that around 7,614 people who arrived from China are from an ethnic minority. Most likely ethnic Kazakhs since Kazakhstan has a campaign to re-immigrate overseas Kazakhs, and at least 13.2% of returning Kazakhs since 1991 have arrived from China.
Sources from Kazakhstan do not seem to support the notion of a restriction of movement for ethnic minorities in China moving to Kazakhstan.
The only time that migration to Kazakhstan from China during 2017 to 2021 was at its lowest is in 2021 (Only 249 migrants).
The PRC confiscating passports in 2016 to 2017 does not appear to have any observable affect to migration to Kazakhstan. since the amount of people immigrating to Kazakhstan was 2,114 in 2016 and 3,015 in 2017 compared to only 630 in 2014 and 1,249 in 2015.
Most migrants from China to Kazakhstan are not Ethnic Chinese.
Note: These 4 countries are the most likely where refugees would escape through due to the large population density near them. ↩︎
Note: These findings do not verify whether or not Uyghurs can move abroad, however it is still important at verifying anti-China claims since Kazakhs are said to be persecuted too, and Amnesty International says most of it’s interviewees are Kazakhs. ↩︎
https://stat.gov.kz/api/getFile/?docId=ESTAT418149&lang=en retrieved from https://stat.gov.kz/official/industry/61/statistic/8 ↩︎
Note: Refed to as “Nationality” or “ұлты” ↩︎
Both sources have very correlative “Total/Everything (барлығы)” amounts, mostly likely being connected to one another. ↩︎
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oralman https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/documents/details/12022?lang=kk https://www.bugin.kz/11353-koshi-qon-tauelsizdik-qansha-oralman-elge-oraldy ↩︎
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A possible counter argument against the potential “China pressured Kazakhstan” argument is that would the Chinese government even care about some statistics that could prove Anti-China claims if the Kazakhstani government itself doesn’t condemn China. (The Kazakhstani government seems to be neutral on Xinjiang).
God yeah the whole thing is ridiculous. none of the central Asian or majority Muslim countries have “stood up” against the “genocide” but I’m glad that people are looking for quantifiable facts