Poland on the other hand is a much more likely suspect. The UK as well.

All of them except Hungary, Ukraine and to a much lesser extend the US would be shooting themselves in the foot even more than they have now.

Hungary not having a navy would be a reason to think people will exempt them from suspicion.
But all you need is a single boat, a robot submarine with camera and four explosives.

There is a lot of criticize about Hungary and its quasi-fascist government, but this is not something they could or would do.

It’s not a criticism saying Hungary is capable of it or having a motive to do it. It’s what I would have done if I were Hungary.
If I were forced to put sanctions on myself or be put sanctions by the group I’m in, then I feel put in situation where I’m being attacked and I’m not given a way out.
So I would have to make one myself.
In fact I remember having done something like that myself.
New at college there were a couple of unfunny pranksters and I told new friends that we should collectively stand up against them. And those “friends” just bailed on that idea telling me that one should just take the blows and ignore them. That cowardly behavior disgusted me and since I couldn’t fight against multiple people alone, I sabotaged some stuff of the pranksters and left clues that would point to the cowards.
Then I watched them fight each other.

They are also very strongly opposed to anything that disturbs european energy markets, they were pretty much the only EU member who stood firm against oil and gas sanctions.

And they are no longer allowed to, which puts them in a predicament.
von der Leyen is a bully, while Scholz is a coward.

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