Avoiding a Long War in Ukraine
The United States has a strong interest in avoiding a long war in Ukraine. Although Washington cannot alone determine the war's duration, it can take steps to make an eventual negotiated peace more likely.

So Russia will be weakened militarily and the USA will be weakened millitarily and diplomatically, the EU will be politically unstable while China just chills trying to get loans and economic development with everyone else.

The paper states that the main reason that Ukraine’s decision to not negotiate is that the US gives them optimism to continue the war. They also say that Russia has reason to believe that the sanctions might continue even after the war is over. That is all that I could get for material analysis from this 32 page document.

“A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world”

The US leaders are too stubborn to pull out of this stupid war that will undermine capitalism. Good.


From what we’re seeing so far the assessment that Russia is being weakened militarily seems to be just hopium. Russia has massively ramped up its military production, and in relative terms it’s the collective west that’s being weakened.

China is definitely the biggest winner in all this, and the war has completely derailed US plans to start a conflict with China in the near future. Accelerated dedollarization is also helping China since it will make it easier to break with the dollar going forward.

Meanwhile, the analysis regarding US leadership being too invested in the war to change gears does seem accurate. US has painted itself into a corner and they don’t really have any way out now.

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