Hello everyone. I hope you have read my two previous posts regarding my findings about Xinjiang. https://lemmygrad.ml/post/420481 https://lemmygrad.ml/post/420432 These, findings seem to contradict the claims of MSM regarding a key aspect about the narrative on Xinjiang. But the key word is "seem". I believe that my findings require more critical analysis and refinement, I am not an expert in these sorts of things, and particularly because one of my arguments in https://lemmygrad.ml/post/420432 looks like its leaning to the "Causation correlation" fallacy. Also, this should get more traction in the Pro-PRC side because it is non-PRC evidence which contradicts claims of MSM.

Please read the original post. https://lemmygrad.ml/post/376529 In anticipation of counterarguments from the Anti-PRC crowd, I am making this most to give my responses to potential objections to my findings. ----------------------------------------------------------------- "The immigrants from China are not Kazakhs" This postulates that the non-ethnic Chinese immigrants that arrived in Kazakhstan are not ethnic Kazakhs since my original post did not definitively prove that. Now, with deeper research on the Kazakhstani source, I have come up with more conclusive evidence to prove that the immigrants are indeed Kazakhs. First the Kazakhstani source defines 2 groups of countries immigrants come from.  CIS countries and "other countries" which means non-CIS countries. The sum of the total of arrivals from CIS countries and the "other countries" are equal to the total to the number of arrivals from "External migration - arrival by all flows"   Now, if we combine both the arrivals from China and Mongolia since they are both the largest source for Kazakh arrivals from non-CIS countries, we see that it mostly correlates with the number of Kazakh arrivals from "Migration with other countries - arrival".   China -Blue, Mongolia - Red  қазақтар - Kazakh   As we can observe particularly from the years of 2013 to 2021, most of the immigrants are from China rather than Mongolia. And the number of immigrants from China correlate heavily with the number of Kazakhs arriving from other countries.  Blue - Kazakhs from other countries, Orange - Immigrants from China We can include that most immigrants from China to Kazakhstan are Kazakhs. ----------------------------------------------------------------- "The drop of immigrants in 2017 to 2018 proves restriction of movement" This counterargument postulates that the 2017 to 2018 drop of immigrants proves that there is a restriction of movement.   First off, that drop could have been caused by some other factor rather than just restriction of movement and does not necessarily prove it. Second, like what I said in my first post, the issue is that the does not line up if the freedom of restriction movement claims. Which state that it began with passport confiscations and restriction from 2015 becoming harsher in 2016 to 2017. This is not supported by the immigration data which demonstrates the opposite with immigration increasing from 2015 to 2017. Furthermore, there is no more freedom of movement claim for the years of 2018. Basically, there is no given new harsher freedom of movement restriction to explain as to why the number of immigrants would only drop in 2018 rather than 2017. So, it is likely that these passport confiscations where overblown and are not an attempt at freedom of movement restriction. Lastly, given how harsh security is claimed in Xinjiang by the report, literally claiming that the Chinese government has the ability to track every ethnic minority, why was the drop only around 50% that does not seem like immigration became "extraordinarily difficult" or "impossible", surely the government has the ability to reduce that number to 0. Also, after 2018 it begins to slowly increase until 2021. So, in summary, given that still thousands of ethnic Kazakhs were still able to leave China casts doubt that the PRC was doing any actual attempts at freedom of movement restrictions. ---------------------------------------------------------------- For the last counterargument I do not have a conclusive answer to, which is: "China forced Kazakhstan to fake the data" Although, at the end of the day it is just speculation until any actual evidence can be provided. ----------------------------------------------------------------- "China forced Kazakhstan to fake the data" This one is self-explanatory. If that were the case, wouldn't Chinese media begin using this Kazakhstani data as a common talking point against Xinjiang claims. Isn't that the point of faking data is to use it for propaganda and to convince others. Why is it only me who seems to be the only person who found this. Also, if China did fake the Kazakh data, then why would they add a drop between 2017 and 2018 which could be used by opponents to claim freedom of movement restrictions. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Source of Kazakhstani data https://taldau.stat.gov.kz/kk/NewIndex/GetIndex/703885?keyword= https://taldau.stat.gov.kz/kk/NewIndex/GetIndex/703881?keyword= https://stat.gov.kz/api/getFile/?docId=ESTAT418149&lang=en https://taldau.stat.gov.kz/kk/NewIndex/GetIndex/2929752?keyword= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oralman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States Amnesty Report link https://xinjiang.amnesty.org/ ↩︎ Refer to "Restrictions on former camp detainees’ freedom to leave the country"

 https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/08/220801133046.htm # Life Expectancy for Native Americans dropped by 6.6 years in just 2 years.  [CDC 2019](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr70/nvsr70-19.pdf)  [CDC 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf)

Basically, where they claim all data and statistics from China that portrays China in a positive light are fake without any proof ex: China covid data, Yet use data and statistics from China if it can be used to portray China in a negative light ex: Zenz Xinjiang IUD birthrate drop. Is there a name for this, it sounds like a logical fallacy?

Hey everyone, you may know me as u/HAMSTERSRULE111 and its been along time since I have posted back at GenZedong and first time posting here, and during my absence I have become more anxious over my attempts to verify MSM claims about China, worried that my findings might not be credible, contain logical fallacies, or might be to inconclusive. I'm no expert in investigation, just someone who wants to find the truth. This greatly discouraged me from researching MSM claims about China... Until now. Please read my findings below and my concerns, and please comment any issue with them. Thank you. ----------------------------------------------------------------- # Opening Aside from a handful of testifiers^[https://shahit.biz/eng/#evidence], there as been a strange lack of a mass refugee crisis coming from Xinjiang. What I define by "mass refugee crisis" is that during a genocide, the persecuted tend to leave in a mass exodus. For example, 780,000 ethnic Rohingya fled to Bangladesh to escape persecution in Myanmar^[https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/rohingya/]. However, there have only been a miniscule amount of asylum seekers from China in the countries that border Xinjiang. ^[Note: [These 4 countries are the most likely where refugees would escape through due to the large population density near them](https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.0cc053d926e7e937e1b3ab57b6c32ef2?rik=khP%2fW89rSG25yw&riu=http%3a%2f%2fi.imgur.com%2f2BCKPUB.jpg&ehk=0Eyy8KCYxX4cAXwnl5cFHFHAUVJyLFWgaDYy4OaioVw%3d&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0). ] Country - Amount of asylum applicants from China from 2017 to 2021 according to The UN Refugee Agency Kazakhstan ^[https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=W9sU1n ] - **23** Kyrgyzstan ^[https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=KhSDd6]- **5** Pakistan ^[https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=YjdT1c] - **18** Tajikistan - N/A An explanation given is that the Chinese Government had made it difficult for ethnic minorities to leave China in 2016 - 2017^[https://xinjiang.amnesty.org/].  However, sources I have found from the Kazakhstani Government do not seem to support this allegation. They seem to indicate that thousands of ethnic minorities most potentially being ethnic Kazakhs migrating into Kazakhstan from China from the years of 2017 to 2021 supposedly when the Xinjiang Crackdown is in effect^[Note: These findings do not verify whether or not Uyghurs can move abroad, however it is still important at verifying anti-China claims since Kazakhs are said to be persecuted too, [and Amnesty International says most of it's interviewees are Kazakhs.](https://preview.redd.it/m0z3kjhi4zm91.png?width=476&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b4130934dabaac5d439b82757d5b46396ca1b68)] # Findings First source is "External migration by country" from Stat.gov.kz. Specifically " Number of arrivals to the Republic of Kazakhstan by country of arrival"^[https://stat.gov.kz/api/getFile/?docId=ESTAT418149&lang=en retrieved from https://stat.gov.kz/official/industry/61/statistic/8 ].  Using the data of this table, we can make a line graph of migrants entering Kazakhstan from other countries.  **Legend: Blue - China, Orange - Mongolia, Yellow - Turkmenistan, Green - Uzbekistan, Violet - Russia**  **Without Russia and Uzbekistan**  **China only** (Do note the years of 2016 - 2021 saw a lower amount of migrants relative to the years prior, and some unexpected increases can happen ex: Mongolia from 3,706 to 7,438 and finally 3,502 people in just three years respectively) Although, this graph is not incredibly useful on it's own since it does not show the ethnic composition of the migrants. Which is where the second source comes in^[https://taldau.stat.gov.kz/kk/NewIndex/GetIndex/2929752?keyword=].  It is connected to the first source except it allows us to view the ethnicity^[Note: Refed to as "Nationality" or "ұлты"] of migrants entering Kazakhstan^[[Both sources have very correlative "Total/Everything (барлығы)" amounts](https://preview.redd.it/0sqbbuer6zm91.jpg?width=577&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ae0b8138e8e5a656834f23729a2be350f96296c), mostly likely being connected to one another.].  The table reveals that only a small mount of ethnic Chinese had migrated to Kazakhstan compared to the amount of arrivals from China. **Charts below assume that all the Ethnic Chinese had migrated from China**   In 2017 - 2021 alone, only 59 ethnic Chinese had migrated to Kazakhstan, while 7,673 people had arrived from China. Which could mean that around 7,614 people who arrived from China are from an ethnic minority. Most likely ethnic Kazakhs since Kazakhstan has a campaign to re-immigrate overseas Kazakhs, and at least 13.2% of returning Kazakhs since 1991 have arrived from China^[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oralman https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/documents/details/12022?lang=kk https://www.bugin.kz/11353-koshi-qon-tauelsizdik-qansha-oralman-elge-oraldy]. # Conclusion - Sources from Kazakhstan do not seem to support the notion of a restriction of movement for ethnic minorities in China moving to Kazakhstan. - The only time that migration to Kazakhstan from China during 2017 to 2021 was at its lowest is in 2021 (Only 249 migrants). - The PRC confiscating passports in 2016 to 2017 does not appear to have any observable affect to migration to Kazakhstan. since the amount of people immigrating to Kazakhstan was 2,114 in 2016 and 3,015 in 2017 compared to only 630 in 2014 and 1,249 in 2015. - Most migrants from China to Kazakhstan are not Ethnic Chinese.